Sunday, April 02, 2023
Arriving at Reasonably Accurate Conclusions
It’s actually not all that hard to formulate a well-founded opinion based on evidence.
In the important issues of the day, one should consider the arguments put fourth by the side one initially favors. One should also be familiar with the opposing side’s arguments. Bridging the gap between the two only requires an intelligent consideration of human nature and outcomes of similar issues as they occurred in the past.
Even with adherence to sound reasoning, there are stances one is predisposed to by virtue of upbringing, education, and physiological/psychological factors. If one favors a solitary independent and tolerant lifestyle they are likely to arrive at conclusions very different than one who generally favors collective social interaction and a desire to mold the social environment around them.
Personal predispositions aside, a sober appraisal of information from a variety of sources mixed with an accurate appraisal of human nature will certainly steer one in the direction of sound judgement.
Arguing why you oppose Donald Trump’s policy of “building a wall” can be successfully done and likely appeal to others who share a less-tradition view of borders. Arguing that “Donald Trump is a racist”…or “Hitler” affords a less convincing argument.
“Misinformation,” “disinformation,” and “fake news” really don’t matter if communication sources are open and free to all and if smart people have the good sense to appraise a wide variety of opinion. Those obsessed with “disinformation” are typically just mad that opposing views exist.
Some widely held beliefs are unbelievable and stupid (as well as inaccurate). Others have successfully convinced many (eg. Trump called immigrants ‘animals.’ “). To anyone alert to the nonsense that some partisan sources have put out there, fake news is not a big deal, and certainly doesn’t require censorship schemes, especially on the part of the state (with a major track record of lying).
Practically every major “conspiracy theory” of the past several years has proven to have at least had a grain of truth to it. In some cases a “conspiracy theory” has been 100% true. That doesn’t mean that Elvis is still alive somewhere but it seems to indicate that Hydroxychloroquine and Ivermectin can be reasonably effective in treating the Covid-19 virus.
There’s nothing difficult or magical in arriving at a reasonably accurate view of important issues. Unfortunately, facts will never work for some people. They will insist that the dreams and ideals in their mind will always outweigh a mountain of facts. Not much can be done about them. One should certainly not censor them. A bad idea is usually transparently bad, at least enough to eventually bring a majority around to an honest perspective.
Consider a spectrum of views. Consider human nature and historical precedent. Roll your eyes at obvious nonsense, yawn, and get on with your life.
